Quick take

A former Trump administration Iran adviser told POLITICO this week that the current round of diplomacy is unlikely to produce a real exit from the fighting. He thinks both sides are irrationally confident and that means the conflict will probably last longer than people expect, with the real risk of further escalation.

Trump says he was surprised. Swanson disagrees

The president has been saying he was surprised that Iran hit regional energy infrastructure. The adviser said that is not accurate. Plenty of officials warned about that risk, but the president did not take those warnings. The adviser, who was pushed out of government, says he warned about similar outcomes earlier.

Why talks look shaky

  • Iran rejected the current proposal, seeing it as the same package it refused before.
  • Both sides feel they hold the stronger position, so neither seems ready to compromise.
  • On the Iranian side, the adviser says the June war made Tehran harder and less flexible. Their engagement now is often more for show than negotiation.
  • On the U.S. side, domestic politics and outside pressures narrowed what negotiators were willing to offer, especially around enrichment and sanctions relief.

The narrow off-ramp problem

The adviser’s blunt message: you cannot unilaterally design the exit. Iran is not going to capitulate. Washington faces two basic choices: escalate or compromise. He expects the administration may go ahead with some of the ground operations it has been considering, because an easy political off-ramp will not present itself.

What might push a deescalation?

He thinks markets could be the trigger. Economic pain, and how it affects markets, might be the one thing that convinces the president to step back.

What Iran actually wants right now

According to the adviser, Iran is skeptical of public ultimatums and wants concrete things:

  • A financial replacement for what it treats as a new toll on the Strait of Hormuz. That likely looks like sanctions relief or payments.
  • Some kind of assurance that this kind of confrontation will not repeat every few months. That is a hard promise to provide.

What Tehran learned from the standoff

Iran has discovered it can influence traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in a way that helps its own position, without fully shutting the waterway. That gives Tehran a degree of leverage it did not fully appreciate before.

Who is "winning"?

It depends on the metric. The U.S. has degraded Iran's military capabilities and retains clear military superiority. Iran measures success differently; if survival and continued resistance count as victory, Iran is meeting that test for now.

How the Iranian public is responding

The adviser says the population seems divided: pro-regime, anti-regime, and those who just want a better life. The latter group is mostly on the sidelines because they do not want to risk their lives. People are unlikely to switch sides because of this conflict alone, and ordinary Iranians may end up being the biggest losers if the crisis is used as justification for broader actions.

Bottom line

The adviser expects a long, bumpy road ahead. Negotiations look fragile, Iran appears less willing to bend, domestic U.S. politics complicates offers, and the most likely outcomes are continued conflict or a difficult compromise. Watch markets and possible ground operations for signs of which path the administration will take.