Hilton’s Climb Could Quiet the Panic Button for California Democrats

Take a deep breath, California Democrats. A fresh poll suggests Republican Steve Hilton is pulling support away from his GOP rival, and that could blunt the worst-case scenario for the left. As UC Berkeley professor Jack Citrin put it, "If Hilton starts taking votes away from Bianco within that solid Republican pool, that would make it less likely" that Republicans sweep the top of the ticket.

Who’s actually winning - and who’s just doing a decent cosplay of a campaign

On the Democratic side, three names sit comfortably in the top tier: Tom Steyer, Eric Swalwell and Katie Porter. The rest of the field is barely registering: Xavier Becerra at 5 percent, Antonio Villaraigosa 4 percent, Matt Mahan 3 percent, Betty Yee 2 percent, Tony Thurmond 1 percent. Ian Calderon showed 2 percent but dropped out after the poll was run, so consider that a ghost vote.

Insiders versus the rest of us

A separate survey of political insiders paints a different picture, with Swalwell leading the influencer crowd at 22 percent, Mahan at 14 percent, Steyer 13 percent and Porter 12 percent. Translation: the people who work in politics like one set of names; the average voter is still making up their mind.

The curious case of Matt Mahan

Mahan arrived with a Silicon Valley fanfare, but most voters are still like, "Who?" Nearly 30 percent of respondents said they had never heard of him, and about the same share said they were unsure what to think. His touted crossover appeal hasn’t translated into GOP votes - only 2 percent of Republicans back him. By contrast, Steyer, who is openly progressive, picked up 5 percent of GOP respondents, likely thanks to heavy advertising money that nudged his numbers up from the single-digit purgatory.

Latino voters aren’t following the script

Two Latino candidates, Becerra and Villaraigosa, are both stuck at about 8 percent support among Latino likely voters. That’s less than Hilton, who scores 15 percent with Latino voters, and less than Steyer’s 14 percent. As Citrin observed, Becerra and Villaraigosa may be cannibalizing each other’s support.

Undecided voters: the silent swing votes

Overall, 17 percent of voters are undecided. But the breakdown matters: only 7 percent of Republicans are truly undecided, while 19 percent of Democrats and a whopping 32 percent of independents are still on the fence. That means the general election could hinge on who convinces the middle to show up and pick a side.

Favorability tells a mood

Voters split on top Democrats' likeability. Porter posts about 36 percent favorable and 39 percent unfavorable, Steyer 36 percent favorable and 32 percent unfavorable, and Swalwell 32 percent favorable and 30 percent unfavorable. Among Democratic voters, Porter looks best with 55 percent favorable. Independents are tougher critics: all three are viewed more unfavorably than favorably there, and Swalwell performs worst with independents at 12 percent favorable and 26 percent unfavorable.

Second choices reveal the soft alliances

When voters name a backup pick, Bianco and Hilton show up most often - not surprising since they are the main Republicans. Among Democrats, Porter is the most common second choice at 12 percent. The second-choice data also show clustering: nearly 40 percent of Swalwell voters pick Porter as their runner-up, while 25 percent of Porter voters name Swalwell as their second choice. Steyer is the preferred second pick for both Becerra and Villaraigosa supporters at 18 percent each.

What voters say they want

About 40 percent of likely voters say the top trait they want in a governor is a fresh perspective from outside politics. That preference is especially strong among Republicans and independents. Democrats like an outsider too, but they also value state government experience or prior elected office.

How the poll was done

The findings come from parallel online surveys of California likely voters and a separate study of political and policy influencers, conducted in English and Spanish between Feb. 25 and Mar. 3, 2026. The voter survey included 1,004 registered voters chosen at random. Data were weighted to reflect population and registration figures. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 percent for the voter survey and plus or minus 3.7 percent for the influencer survey.

Short version: Hilton’s rise could split the Republican vote, which might save Democrats from a worst-case outcome. But with lots of undecided voters and name recognition still climbing for some candidates, the race is far from settled. Popcorn, please.