Larry Fink, co-founder and chief executive of BlackRock, warned that a long-running conflict involving Iran could drive oil up toward $150 a barrel and tip the global economy into a "stark and steep recession." He said sustained high energy costs would hit the lowest-paid households the hardest and have deep economic effects.

Why prices are climbing

Iran has effectively disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for oil tankers. That disruption has pushed oil prices above the $100 mark multiple times recently. While talks about a possible de-escalation briefly eased prices, Brent crude remained elevated at about $94 on Wednesday. Higher costs over several weeks are already expected to push up energy bills, fuel prices and food costs.

Fink's warning in plain terms

  • Regressive impact: Fink described rising energy prices as a regressive tax that affects poorer households more than wealthier ones.
  • Worst-case scenario: If Iran remains a prolonged threat and oil stays high, prices could sit above $100 and move closer to $150 for years, with "profound implications in the economy." He said that could cause a steep global recession.
  • Best-case scenario: If Iran is reintegrated into international relations, prices could fall even below pre-conflict levels of roughly $70 a barrel.
  • No 2008 replay: Asked whether this looks like the 2008 financial crisis, Fink said he sees no similarities.

Other industry voices and responses

  • Shell: Wael Sawan, chief executive of Shell, warned at an industry conference that Europe could face fuel shortages and even rationing as the situation evolves. He described how the impact has moved from South Asia to south-east and north-east Asia and is now reaching Europe.
  • IEA: International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol said the IEA is prepared to release emergency oil reserves if needed, though he hopes that will not be necessary. He urged countries to accelerate moves toward solar and wind and to avoid relying on a single energy source.

And a quick note on AI

Fink also weighed in on artificial intelligence. He said he does not see an AI bubble at the sector level, though individual companies could fail. He stressed that the United States must invest more in AI or risk falling behind China, calling it essential to build out AI capabilities aggressively.

Bottom line: sustained high oil prices would have wide-reaching effects, and the poorest households would feel the pain first. Policymakers and energy companies are watching closely and weighing emergency measures while urging faster investment in alternative energy.