From Trump’s favorite European to a harder line
At Donald Trump’s January 2025 inauguration, one European leader made the guest list: Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s right-wing prime minister. A month earlier, she had been photographed in an unusually private conversation with Trump in the dining room of the Élysée Palace, where Emmanuel Macron was hosting a celebration for the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris. Subtle, it was not.
From the opening stretch of Trump’s second term, Meloni was widely cast as the European leader he could work with. Trump praised her as someone who could help “straighten out the world a little bit,” and during her April visit to the White House, after he had announced sweeping global trade tariffs, he called her “a real live wire.” She was, once again, the first European leader to come calling.
Meloni was happy to lean into the role. She presented herself as the one European who could ease Trump’s trade war and keep the transatlantic relationship from becoming a complete nuisance. Trump, she said, was “a brilliant man,” and together they would “make the West great again.”
That warmth is now fraying, and the war in Iran is the main reason.
Last weekend, while visiting the Gulf region, Meloni drew a line. “When we don’t agree, we must say it. And this time, we do not agree,” she said, referring to the US-Israeli war on Iran. The visit was the first by a Western leader since the conflict began.
A week earlier, Italian authorities had already refused to let US bombers refuel at a military base in southern Italy. Put together, the two moves were the clearest signs yet that Meloni is finally telling Trump no, at least when the costs start landing on her doorstep.
The bridge is wobbling
“She wanted to play the role of the bridge between Trump and European allies, and this initially looked like a good idea,” said Roberto D’Alimonte, professor of political science at Luiss University in Rome. “But today it has become a liability and she is trying to correct this.”
That correction is happening because the Iran war has quickly become a domestic problem for Italy, not just a foreign policy problem. Meloni is trying to keep Trump happy without absorbing the political and economic fallout of a conflict Italy was never consulted on. A classic modern leadership task, really: please the strongman abroad, calm the voters at home, and hope the spreadsheets cooperate.
Polls suggest the public mood is not helping her. A solid majority of Italians oppose the war in Iran, especially because of the energy-price shock it has triggered. Meanwhile, the share of Italians with a positive view of Trump has fallen sharply, from 35 percent to 19 percent. With key elections due next year, Meloni cannot simply shrug and pretend this is someone else’s problem.
That tension was on display last month, when voters rejected a referendum on judicial reform backed by Meloni. Analysts said the result was less about the proposal itself than about frustration with Meloni and her steadfast support for an increasingly unpredictable American president.
Among Italians aged 18 to 34, 61 percent voted against her proposals. It was Meloni’s first major defeat since taking power, after leading a coalition that has otherwise been unusually stable by Italian standards.
“The result of the referendum is partly to be attributed to the fact that many young people voted against it, not so much because of the merits of the referendum’s object but because of the situation in the Middle East, her lack of clear criticism towards Trump’s world vision that relies on force rather than the rule of law,” said Ettore Greco, vice president of the Rome-based think tank Istituto Affari Internazionali.
Energy worries and economic pain
For Italy, the Iran war is also hitting where it hurts most: the economy.
The country is unusually exposed to rising energy prices as conflict rattles markets across Europe. Italy is the European Union’s second-largest natural gas consumer after Germany, and gas accounts for about 40 percent of its energy needs. At the same time, about a fifth of the world’s energy exports are currently trapped in the Gulf, after Iran pushed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz close to a standstill following US-Israeli attacks.
The economic fallout is already showing up in Rome.
Last week, the government angered Italian businesses by cutting funding for a programme meant to support investment, citing the war’s effects. The Bank of Italy lowered its growth forecast, now expecting the economy to expand by just 0.5 percent this year and next, trimming earlier estimates. And the national statistics institute reported that Italy’s deficit has gone above the EU’s 3 percent limit, meaning the country still cannot leave the bloc’s infringement procedure. That would have given Meloni more room to maneuver fiscally before elections next year, which is apparently the kind of flexibility politicians notice only after they lose it.
Still not a clean break
Even so, this is not a full divorce from Trump.
Meloni has been careful, which is her habit and also her survival strategy. She has condemned what she needs to condemn, but only up to a point. In mid-March, she ruled out sending military vessels to the Strait of Hormuz despite Trump’s demand that she do so, aligning Italy with other European governments. But she still has not condemned the US-led conflict outright.
That balancing act is unlikely to end overnight. Meloni is trying to preserve the relationship with Trump while shifting closer to European partners and limiting the damage at home.
“This is a woman who is very cautious, pragmatic and politically skilled,” D’Alimonte said. “She is not going to put all eggs in one basket… She will still straddle the line and move more towards European allies, step by step until she can distance herself without breaking relations.”
For now, that is the story: Meloni is not abandoning Trump. She is simply discovering that being his European favorite comes with a bill, and Italy has started asking who exactly is paying it.
