Short version: A Democratic newcomer won a Florida House seat in Palm Beach County by a narrow margin, unseating a Republican in an area that had voted strongly GOP in 2024. The race drew national attention, including outreach from former President Trump.

The upset in Trump country

Gregory, a first-time candidate with a background in public health and mental health administration who now runs a fitness center for postpartum moms, defeated Jon Maples, a financial planner and former local council member, by just over 2 percentage points. Trump used his social media accounts to urge people to vote for Maples, but that did not change the outcome.

What the winner said

"I think it demonstrates where the Florida voter is," Gregory told POLITICO after her victory. "They want someone who is focused on solutions and the issues and not focused on the noise."

How big a swing was this?

  • In 2024 the GOP incumbent at the time, state Rep. Mike Caruso, carried House District 87 by 19 points.
  • This special election flipped that seat to the Democrats by a little more than 2 points.

Context: more blue gains in Florida

This victory continues a run of Democratic special election wins and stronger-than-expected showings across Florida since the 2024 presidential result.

Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried put it bluntly, saying the result shows Democrats can win across the state if they keep organizing and investing in infrastructure. She also criticized high prices and political chaos as motivating factors for voters.

Mail ballots and the Trumps

State records show that Donald Trump, first lady Melania Trump, and their son Barron all voted by mail in the House District 87 election. Trump requested his mail-in ballot on March 14, a few days after he pushed for limits on mail voting in the SAVE America Act. During a recent stop in Memphis, he called voting by mail "mail-in cheating."

Other special election results and surprises

There were more contests tied to a series of appointments by Governor Ron DeSantis, which created several legislative vacancies. One notable result was Brian Nathan, a union leader and veteran, who won a race to replace Collins in state Senate District 14. Nathan was outspent about 10 to 1 and had limited backing from state Democrats, yet he narrowly beat former state Rep. Josie Tomkow. Even state Democrats described that outcome as surprising.

"We believe Brian just sent shockwaves across Florida," said Shawna Presley Vercher, a consultant for Nathan.

The ripple effects

Tomkow gave up her House seat to run for Senate, creating another vacancy that was filled this week by Republican Hilary Holley. Holley won by nine points, a smaller margin than Tomkow achieved in 2024.

Why these races matter

  • They show local voters responding to issues like affordability and taxes rather than national noise.
  • They suggest that sustained organizing can produce wins for Democrats even in areas that voted strongly GOP recently.
  • They reflect the political churn caused by high-profile appointments and shifting local campaigns.

Bottom line: a narrow but notable Democratic win in a district that seemed safe for the GOP less than two years ago, plus a few unexpected outcomes elsewhere, means Florida politics are far from settled.